Segun Sowunmi Predicts Tinubu Remains Favourite for 2027, Warns Opposition Parties Must Resolve Internal Crises

 Political commentator Segun Sowunmi has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu currently remains the candidate to beat in the 2027 presidential election, arguing that the opposition faces significant structural and organisational challenges despite growing public dissatisfaction over the economy and cost of living.

Speaking during an interview on The Morning Show, Sowunmi examined the state of Nigeria's major political parties following their internal primaries and assessed the prospects of the leading presidential hopefuls ahead of the next general election.

Sowunmi expressed concern over the continuing leadership crisis within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), warning that prolonged legal battles could weaken the party's ability to effectively challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to him, rival factions within the party continue to lay claim to its leadership and have reportedly issued separate certificates of return, creating uncertainty over who will eventually emerge as the legitimate candidate.

"If we keep pulling ourselves through the courts and fail to resolve these disputes on time, the party risks entering the election divided," he said.

He warned that unresolved litigation could ultimately affect the PDP's preparedness for the 2027 contest.

Turning to the opposition landscape, Sowunmi observed that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is also witnessing competition among several aspirants, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, while other political figures continue to position themselves within the coalition.

He also discussed the prospects of Peter Obi, noting that while the former Labour Party presidential candidate enjoys significant national recognition, building and sustaining an effective nationwide political structure remains a major challenge.

"When you are contesting a national election, you need a platform that is easily identifiable from the grassroots to the national level," he said.

According to him, maintaining political momentum between election cycles requires not only popular support but also well-established party structures across the federation.

Despite acknowledging economic challenges facing the country, Sowunmi maintained that President Tinubu currently enjoys considerable political advantages as the incumbent.

"Before now, it was his election to lose. Today, it would take something extraordinary for anyone to defeat him," he stated.

He argued that the APC's political machinery is becoming increasingly organised and that its nationwide structures are already mobilising ahead of the next election.

"The President's political machinery is well-oiled. Their structures are beginning to fire on all cylinders, and by the time campaigns officially begin, they could become a political hurricane," he said.

Sowunmi predicted that the APC could not only retain the presidency but also secure victories in many governorship contests while maintaining majorities in both chambers of the National Assembly.

The political commentator suggested that attention should increasingly shift toward developing a new generation of political leadership beyond the current crop of prominent politicians.

"I have already started looking at 2031 and asking who the next generation of leaders should be," he said.

According to him, Nigeria's democracy would benefit from moving beyond what he described as a recurring cycle of familiar political figures.

Sowunmi also criticised what he described as the growing tendency for political parties to revolve around the ambitions of individual politicians rather than enduring institutional structures.

He argued that sustainable democracy requires strong political parties capable of surviving leadership transitions.

"We failed to build parties that are stronger than the ambitions of individuals. Many parties today have become extensions of one person's influence," he observed.

He called for reforms that would encourage internal democracy, shared leadership, and stronger institutional frameworks within political parties.

During the interview, Sowunmi was asked about increasing calls from some quarters for President Tinubu to resign over economic hardship, insecurity and rising living costs.

He dismissed such demands, arguing that they reflect a misunderstanding of Nigeria's presidential system of government.

"The first person calling for the President's resignation is misunderstanding how a presidential democracy works," he said.

According to him, declining approval ratings are common during the tenure of many elected leaders and do not necessarily determine electoral outcomes.

"No president remains popular throughout an entire term. Public opinion rises and falls over time," he added.

Sowunmi argued that once the official campaign season begins, the APC will shift attention toward showcasing completed projects and government achievements across the country.

He said incumbents generally possess the advantage of pointing to infrastructure projects, public investments and state-level accomplishments when seeking re-election.

"They will market roads, infrastructure and projects completed by both the federal government and APC-controlled states. Voters will then assess those performances for themselves," he explained.

Using the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as an example, he noted that numerous infrastructure projects are already visible and likely to feature prominently in future campaign messaging.

While expressing confidence in Tinubu's current political position, Sowunmi stressed that incumbents are not unbeatable.

He pointed to the 2015 general election, when the opposition successfully unseated an incumbent president through a broad coalition.

According to him, that victory was made possible because major opposition figures united behind a common objective rather than competing against one another.

"In 2015, different political forces came together, built a coalition and organised effectively. Elections are about numbers, organisation, strategy, resources and political science," he said.

He argued that any opposition hoping to challenge the APC in 2027 would need similar levels of coordination, discipline and unity.

Sowunmi concluded by calling for broader conversations about strengthening Nigeria's democratic institutions beyond electoral contests.

He advocated the creation of platforms where citizens, political leaders and civil society groups can collectively discuss reforms aimed at improving governance, political accountability and party development.

"We should not leave future generations with a democracy characterised by chaos. We need stronger institutions, stronger political parties and a more mature democratic culture," he said.

As preparations gradually begin for the 2027 general election, political observers expect internal party reforms, coalition-building and voter mobilisation to dominate Nigeria's political landscape in the months ahead.