Political commentator Segun Sowunmi has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) remain well-positioned for victory in the 2027 general election, arguing that the party's political structure, incumbency, and state-level performance currently give it a significant advantage over the opposition.
Speaking during an interview on The Morning Show, Sowunmi said that while elections remain unpredictable, his analysis suggests that the APC has a realistic pathway to winning a majority of states across the federation.
When pressed to estimate the number of states President Tinubu could secure in the next presidential election, Sowunmi said the ruling party could emerge victorious in approximately 22 states if it maintains its current political momentum.
"If the APC works very hard, it could win about 22 states," he said.
According to him, the projection is based on the party's growing political structures, the performance of several APC governors, and the influence of incumbency.
He argued that opposition narratives suggesting widespread public dissatisfaction do not necessarily translate into electoral defeat for the ruling party.
"One person being angry does not mean the entire society is angry," he said.
Sowunmi cited several northern states where he believes the APC remains politically strong.
In Kaduna State, he pointed to ongoing development projects by the state government, particularly in Southern Kaduna, as factors that could strengthen the party's electoral fortunes.
He also expressed confidence in the APC's prospects in Borno State, praising Governor Babagana Zulum's administration and describing the governor as a strong political asset for the ruling party.
"Does Governor Zulum look like someone who is going to lose his political base?" he asked.
He further identified Nasarawa, Plateau and Benue as states where he believes the APC remains competitive despite internal political disagreements in some areas.
Addressing concerns that the APC's Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket could negatively affect its electoral chances, Sowunmi argued that the issue has largely faded from political discourse.
He said many Nigerians have shifted their attention toward governance and development rather than religious considerations.
According to him, fears surrounding the ticket have not materialised in the manner many political observers initially predicted.
Sowunmi also highlighted what he described as improved international cooperation on security matters under the Tinubu administration.
He argued that Nigeria's engagement with international partners, including the United States, on counter-terrorism efforts reflects growing confidence in the country's security strategy.
While acknowledging that security challenges remain, he maintained that the administration has recorded progress in strengthening cooperation against insurgency.
"I'm not saying everything is perfect, but progress is being made," he noted.
Turning to politics in Ogun State, Sowunmi predicted that the Egba political bloc would play a decisive role in determining who succeeds Governor Dapo Abiodun.
He specifically commended Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, for what he described as significant constituency projects and developmental interventions.
"The footprint of his interventions as a senator is quite substantial," Sowunmi said.
He, however, acknowledged that internal political negotiations and legal considerations could still influence the eventual outcome of the state's governorship race.
"I believe the Egba people will ultimately determine who becomes governor," he added.
Beyond electoral politics, Sowunmi devoted considerable attention to the role of the judiciary in preserving Nigeria's democratic institutions.
He warned that public confidence in the justice system is essential to the country's political stability.
"If citizens begin to lose confidence in government institutions, the judiciary must remain the institution they can still trust," he said.
He urged judicial leaders to protect the independence and credibility of the courts, stressing that justice must not only be done but must also be seen to be done.
The political commentator expressed concern over recurring controversies surrounding judicial orders in politically sensitive cases.
He suggested that repeated rulings by particular courts in high-profile political matters sometimes create public suspicion, even where legal procedures are properly followed.
Without accusing the judiciary of wrongdoing, Sowunmi called on the Chief Justice of Nigeria, the President of the Court of Appeal, heads of the Federal High Court, the Attorney General of the Federation, and President Tinubu to support reforms that strengthen confidence in the justice system.
"You cannot have a situation where people begin to question the integrity of the judiciary. Any society that loses confidence in its courts is a society waiting to implode," he warned.
According to him, preserving judicial independence is fundamental to sustaining democracy and maintaining the rule of law.
Reflecting on Nigeria's electoral process, Sowunmi argued that elections are determined by far more than public opinion alone.
He said successful political campaigns require organisation, strategy, funding, strong party structures, and effective grassroots mobilisation.
"Elections are a science. There is the science of numbers, the science of organisation, the science of resources and political strategy," he said.
Drawing comparisons with the 2015 general election that brought the APC to power, Sowunmi noted that victory was achieved through coalition-building, disciplined organisation and strategic planning rather than popularity alone.
As political parties gradually prepare for the next election cycle, analysts expect debates over governance, economic performance, judicial independence, and party organisation to dominate Nigeria's political landscape.
While Sowunmi believes the APC currently holds the advantage, he acknowledged that elections remain competitive and ultimately depend on the choices made by Nigerian voters.
He concluded by urging political actors and public institutions alike to strengthen democracy through credible elections, responsible leadership and an independent judiciary capable of commanding public trust.
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